Initially: winds 230° at 4kt, visibility 10km, Few (1-2 oktas) at 3000ft. PROB40 TEMPO 3115/3119: winds 220° at 15kt, gusting 30kt, Thunderstorm with rain. PROB30 TEMPO 0104/0106: Thunderstorm with rain, ceiling 2500ft (CB). Worst expected conditions: MVFR.